The Calibrator 2025: On Precision and Restraint

Warren Buffett once compared markets to a Cinderella ball, where the challenge is leaving just before midnight without knowing when the clock will strike. This year, we prepared early for that moment, shifting the portfolio defensively before April, but when volatility arrived and the music faded, we discovered something more uncomfortable: leaving early did not preserve the illusion. The carriage still lost its wheels, and the fine clothes offered no shelter of their own. The real decision was no longer about timing the exit, but about whether to step aside and protect what remained - or stay close enough to the wreckage to understand how it might be rebuilt.

Looking ahead, the greatest risk does not appear to be a single event, but the accumulation of confidence built on partial information. Recent calm should not be mistaken for resolution. We believe the coming year is unlikely to reward speed or conviction alone; instead, it will test patience, and the willingness to revise views as condition changes. Our focus remain on preserving optionality, and staying attentive to signals that challenge, rather than confirm, existing beliefs.

The experience of 2025 suggests that protection without precision can become its own form of risk. Accumulating liquidity is only valuable if accompanied by clarity on its purpose, and restraint only works when paired with readiness. Rather than forcing a directional review, we must be better at defining what deserves permanence and what must remain adaptable. Progress will come not from abandoning caution, but from applying it with greater specificity.

Merry Christmas and happy 2026.